The International Energy Agency (based in Paris) estimates that global oil production will increase during 2024 by about 770 thousand barrels per day, primarily due to an increase in supplies from countries outside the OPEC+ group.

On the demand side, the IEA reduced its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.2 million barrels per day, which is about 130,000 barrels per day less than its previous expectations, which indicates lower than expected in OECD oil consumption and a decline in industrial sector activity.

The agency noted that the growing demand after the easing of Covid-19 restrictions from China, the largest oil importer, has ended. It also noted the increase in global oil inventories, which rose in February 2024 by about 43 million barrels to record their highest levels in 7 months, and the continued stagnation of the industrial sector in advanced economies led to a reduction in demand for fuel.

The agency says that the unusually warm weather in late winter led to a reduction in the use of heating fuels more than usual in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The agency also estimates that the growth in demand for oil in 2025 will decrease to 1.1 million barrels per day, with expectations that China’s contribution to increasing global demand for oil will decline from 79% in 2023 to 45% in 2024 and then to 27% in the next year 2025.

The current debate about IEA regarding the extent of its supporting fossil fuels in recent years:

In recent years, new viewpoints have emerged in some Western countries, which believe that the International Energy Agency is playing a leading role in calling for the elimination of carbon emissions worldwide by 2050, and that it has therefore begun to call in recent years for not developing any new oil, gas, or coal projects.

These trends suggest that the agency has thus “moved away from its primary mission” of protecting energy security, and has emerged as an “encouraging leader” of the green transition.