Now most of OPEC member countries became unable to balance their budgets at current prices. Hence, OPEC is assuming the oil price will rise gradually to $80/b in 2020 as supply growth outside the group weakens. OPEC crude prices will increase by about $5 annually to 2020 from $50 this year.
Some analysts believe that it is difficult to regain prices after the revolution of U.S. shale oil. The persistent glut will keep crude prices low until the year 2030
The price of crude has tumbled more than 50% in the past year as OPEC followed Saudi Arabia’s strategy of defending its share of the global market against competitors like U.S. shale oil. While both OPEC and the International Energy Agency expect growth in global supply to slow as low prices bite
According to OPEC estimates, production from nations outside OPEC will be 58.2 Million b/d in 2017, which is about 1 million b/d lower than previously forecast
OPEC expects little stimulus to global demand in the medium term mainly from developing nations as a result of cheaper oil, with daily consumption growing by about 1 million barrels a year to 97.4 million in 2020.