The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, consistent with previous assessments.

In its monthly report OPEC said that this strong growth is expected to continue in 2026, with a similar increase in global demand of around 1.3 million barrels per day.

OPEC said the 90-day trade agreement between the US and China indicates the possibility of reaching more sustainable agreements and is likely to support trade flows.

OPEC attributed the bulk of this growth to non-OECD countries, which are expected to add around 1.2 million barrels per day to demand each year. Other regions in Asia, followed by China and India, are leading this consumption growth, supported by expansion in the Middle East and Latin America.

In contrast, demand growth in the OECD appears more modest, with only a projected increase of 0.1 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. The Americas are expected to be the main driver of this growth within the OECD, while Europe may see a slight contraction in demand in 2025.

OPEC lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from the United States and other producers outside the OPEC+ group this year, saying it expects lower capital expenditures following the decline in oil prices.

OPEC expects non-OPEC+ oil supply to rise by 800,000 barrels per day this year, down from last month’s forecast of 900,000.

The lower growth in supply from outside OPEC+, which includes OPEC, Russia, and other allies, should make it easier for the group to balance the market. Rapid supply growth resulting from increased US shale oil supplies and production from other countries has weighed on prices in recent years.

It also forecasts a 5% decline in exploration and production investments among producers outside OPEC+ in 2025. The organization stated that investments in this sector rose by about $3 billion year-on-year last year to $299 billion.

OPEC noted in its report that “the potential impact of declining investment in oil exploration and production on production levels in 2025 and 2026 will pose a challenge, despite the sector’s continued focus on improving efficiency and productivity.”