Estimates indicate that Iraq’s production last month exceeded the permissible limit by a range of 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) according to OPEC+ estimates, and 300,000 bpd according to the International Energy Agency.

OPEC and its allies have warned of the seriousness of these violations and emphasized the need for members to adhere to production quotas. Iraq and some other OPEC+ members face ongoing demands from the group to further restrict oil production to compensate for exceeding their quotas last year.
Iraq has expressed some reservations about the production restrictions imposed on it, noting that these restrictions come at a time when Iraq is in dire need of oil revenues to finance the investments needed to revive its oil and gas sector, advance the Iraqi economy in general, and strengthen Iraq’s trade relations and restore its position in international trade after decades of conflict and sanctions. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Iraq needs an oil price above $90 per barrel to cover its huge public spending, while crude oil is actually sold on international markets for less than $70 per barrel.
However, Iraq, the group’s second-largest producer, plans to reduce its exports by approximately 100,000 barrels per day to an average of 3.2 million barrels per day in May 2025 to meet growing demands to adhere to its production quota under the OPEC+ agreement.
OPEC+ relies on oil production, not exports, to measure countries’ compliance with their quota targets. Therefore, it believes that Iraq’s decision to reduce its exports will likely not result in a corresponding reduction in production, especially since Iraq has previously failed to fully meet its production quota commitments.
Based on oil production data, not exports, Iraq’s production declined from 4.44 million barrels per day in 2022 to 4.29 million in 2023, and then to 4.20 million in 2024. Iraq’s oil production is expected to remain close to 4 million barrels per day in 2025.
Iraq’s share of voluntary production cuts amounts to 220,000 barrels per day, out of the total voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, while Iraq’s share of voluntary (additional) cuts amounts to approximately 211,000 barrels per day, bringing Iraq’s total voluntary and additional cuts to 431,000 barrels per day.
Iraq affirms its commitment to compensate for its production excesses in 2024, amounting to 1.44 million barrels per day, in the months extending from the beginning of 2025 until September 2025. This may require restricting its production to an average of 3.880 million barrels per day