The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research:

The Sixteenth Annual Conference "foreseeing the global strategic developments"

Dr.Gamal Al-Sweedi:

The conference is a living and realistic proof of the importance of studies exploring the future

ECSSR terminated the activities of its sixteenth annual conference held under the title "The Global Strategic Developments: a futuristic vision", whose works and sessions took three days from 21st to 23rd March, 2011 at the Centre (headquarters) in Abu Dhabi. Dr Gamal Al Sweedi, the General Manager of the Center has clarified that the conference discussed sixteen search paper which included global strategic developments, summarized as follows:

- The world is currently witnessing changes in the powers and global multi-polarities, where countries such as China, India, Brazil, South Africa, the European Union, Russia as well as the Gulf Cooperation Council came into view.

- The industrial dominance of the US has declined given the funding crises and the growing competition of Asia; the challenges to the U.S. dollar will increase as the world reserve currency, especially from the emerging countries that may seek to retain their strategic currency reserves in the form of a strong currencies' basket.

- The United States must correct the path of its policies and its ideology in the coming years to preserve its current dominant position established in half a century. - The wars will change from wars between states to wars within the states, stemming from the outbreak of the problems of identity, legitimacy, and the transition from imposed stability lacking legitimacy to diversity which may harm the state unity.

- The number of conflicts across the borders together with targeting the civilians rather than military objectives will increase.

- The electronic war will be growing threat in the future through new technologies, and the electronic attacks will be able to induct the same effects that result from the conventional bombs.

- The five permanent members of the Security Council are not likely to use the veto in the cases of exposing peoples to genocide, and the calls to the United Nations to intervene in the cases of natural and industrial disasters will increase.

- The EU lacks coherence and credibility required in all what is related to Foreign Affairs and Defense policies, despite being one of the most important global players in financial and economic fields.

- It is important to recognize that the disastrous effects of "the global economic crisis" will be reflected on the global growth and stability over the coming years.

- The proper way of reform is to put people on the path towards a better life; the flood sweeping the Arab region now will reach other areas.

- The region countries must face the challenge represented in providing job opportunities, housing, education and a decent life for their people.

- Relying on sensor networks in achieving the "safe city" by using the monitoring and follow-up systems and programs to face threats such as terrorism, environmental disasters, medical emergencies, congestion, street crimes, or natural disasters.

- The full implementation of the concept of the "safe city" impedes the fears of the governments' misuse of technology through violating the citizens' privacy, as the worst scenarios do not worth planning for the resulting disastrous losses.

The Gulf future:

Al Sweedi referred to the general framework of the future plan of the Gulf Cooperation Council – GCC countries, which include the following:

- The Gulf strategic vision is based on promoting the local flexibility, increasing the diplomatic dialogue with the East and West; promoting the regional security system; focusing on the official rather than personal diplomatic, and formulating the strategic vision to participate in the international arena.

- The "Cooperation Council" faces security, political, economic and cultural exposure; this requires its transformation into a union like the European Union, the establishment of a unified Gulf army, and the possession of a nuclear power to face the Iranian power if international efforts fail to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Moreover, it is necessary to build the inner power , review the policies that have allowed the GCC countries to become a market for the employment of the world, promote the citizenship concept, and support the Gulf citizenship.

- The seriousness of the slow pace of the Gulf cooperation and integration; confederation unitary steps must be taken in order to achieve the aspirations of the Gulf peoples, and a Gulf Justice Court must be established to resolve disputes and eliminate administrative and bureaucratic obstacles that prevent the integration between the citizens of the "Cooperation Council".

- The national sovereignty concept must be reviewed as it might impede the success of any collective action such as confronting the challenges faced recently by some of its members like Oman and Bahrain, and before that addressing the Iraqi invasion to Kuwait.

- Consecrating the citizenship concept in the GCC countries, improving the strategic planning system, giving its citizens the priority in the labor market, and promoting the popular participation in decision-making.

- Rooting and privatizing democracy in the GCC countries, and this does not mean it is evolving day after day in line with the progress in development, the UAE is considered a realistic model for this democracy. - Addressing the current protests lies in combining political, economic and living stability and domestic reforms aiming at strengthening social cohesion.

- Establishing smart cities in a way that allows the authorities to predict various attacks and disasters, and develop measures to limit its implications, and human and material losses.

- The importance of the presence of financial stability units in the central banks lies in monitoring risks affecting the country financial system and presenting recommendations on how to deal with them.

- Allowing women to join all the political, economic, social, cultural, and security fields.

- Addressing the problem of water scarcity in the Gulf states by exploiting modern technology; this can be carried out through regional cooperation to reduce cost and increase the usage scope of the available resources.

Foreseeing the global economy

The speech of Sultan Bin Nasser Al Sweedi, the UAE Central Bank Governor, on "the international financial institutions and global economic stability," included that there are more than 64 million people living in severe poverty where their daily income does not exceed $1.25 as a result of the global financial crisis. He added that the new point of view about the crisis is that the financial crisis was and still (global), but the solutions and remedies must be (global and local at the same time).

In his analysis of the future effects of the global financial crisis, "Mano Paskaran", an expert at the Policy Studies Institute in Singapore, declares that "despite the apparent end of the worst effects of the crisis, but I do not believe it has completely reached an end." He stressed that the global economy after the crisis will witness a big change from what had prevailed earlier.

The road map of the Gulf States' future

For his part, the former Kuwaiti Information Minister Dr. Saad Al-Agami, discussed the theme of "the inevitability and rapidness of the Gulf integration" pointing out that the world grows bigger and smaller at the same time, where it becomes bigger with the major economic powers with the political weight relying on their economic output figures number; the world grows smaller day after day surpassing the traditional boundaries between countries thanks to the technical communications revolution, and rapid transport development. He pointed out to the importance of coordination between the GCC countries which enjoy a distinguished strategic location in the center of the world, which gives them an advantage which may be a curse if major powers and regional states scrambled due the GCC countries' huge oil reserves, and also because of their trade marine routes critical to the global economy.

He pointed out that the march of the "Cooperation Council", despite exceeding three decades, despite the survival of its coherence and achievements, it was slow, either in realizing the required economic integration, or in building a unified defense system to dispense with the use of the Great Powers. It also failed to resolve the disputes that arise between the GCC countries and failed to achieve the complete administrative and legal link between the citizens of its states. Al Agami said: "The time is not in the interest of this slow process of the gulf cooperation and integration; unitary confederation steps must be taken for the emergence of a unified Gulf army, and a Gulf Justice Court to resolve disputes and remove administrative barriers impeding integration between the GCC citizens."

Political and military developments:

In his keynote speech, the former US Secretary of State the "retired General Colin Powell" stressed the response of the different political systems to the aspirations of their peoples, and the achievement of the required political, economic and social reforms.

Powell noted that the "tsunami" of popular protests that goes through several countries in the Arab region could have passed as a simple wave, and not as a storm, if the systems had responded to the wishes of the people and have kept up with the global changes and developments. He explained that the "media revolution tsunami" such as the "facebook" and "Twitter" broke the barriers and restrictions imposed by the states on their people, and allowed people to communicate in a way which governments can not control, and it became possible for people to detect hypocrisy, corruption and selfishness of the leaders. He noted that peoples today call for power sharing in order not to infringe on other countries, but to improve their lives and as they believe that this is their right. Powell said that most of the dictatorships that were in Latin America, Europe and Asia were forced, under pressure from their people, to move towards democracy and develop their economies in order to provide appropriate jobs for citizens.

Powell added that "the change will be smooth in some countries and difficult in others; Tunisia and Egypt must be the model for this region. Some governments will act wisely and reform themselves by responding to the aspirations of their people to a better life. The flood sweeping the region now reach all countries and no government will be away from it, and all countries must face the challenge represented in providing job opportunities, housing, education and a decent life for their peoples. If the leadership enjoys wisdom and foresight, it can take advantage of the driving force behind these strong waves to achieve a better future for its people."

In a paper discussing "the military alliances' future" by Bab de Hoop Scheffer, the former Secretary General of the "North Atlantic Treaty Organization" (NATO), he stressed that the alliance of nations to confront the threats and challenges of the twenty first century requires a powerful political base and common understanding together with an analysis of the political environment in order to ensure cohesion and the possibility to reach any decision on conducting a military action. Thus, any current or future alliance must have the military and political attributes. He stated that the "North Atlantic Treaty Organization" (NATO), established since 63 years, is one of the unique alliances in its success, where it still witnesses a consensus on the principles on which it was founded." He said "the (NATO) allies know where and when to defend any breach of these values. While the principle of defending the land did not lose its importance in this new century, we find that sustaining security has become more urgent." He stated that alliances must be strengthened, including the alliance between the "NATO" and the Gulf region, with the possibility of discussing the conclusion of new alliances.

In his paper entitled "The strategic vision to ensure the Gulf security", Dr. John Chipman, the General Director and the Chief Executive Officer in the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the United Kingdom, outlined the numerous and varied threats the Gulf security faces. The matter requires enhancing flexibility in the Gulf regarding the internal, regional and international threats, exerting some efforts ranging from improving the relationship between the citizen and the state and achieving further consultation between the regional powers, and deepening and diversifying relations with a larger number of external forces. At the end of his speech, Chipman believes that the regional security in the Gulf is considered a global interest.

16th Annual Energy Conference
Conference Closing Remarks

Dr. Jamal Sanad Al-Suwaidi, Director General, ECSSR, UAE

The last three decades have seen tireless efforts worldwide to find alternatives to fossil fuel energy. Nevertheless, oil has remained the most critical commodity in the world throughout the greater part of the twentieth century and the first decade of this century, and there is no indication that this situation will change in the foreseeable future.

This conference has discussed – objectively and in depth – 19 research papers on problems concerning the future of oil, reaching the following conclusions:

• Renewable energy will help maintain reserves of fossil energy and protect the environment.

• The share of crude oil and gas in global consumption increased to 53% in 2009, which underlines the need to invest heavily in research, exploration and production in order to meet high demand.

• There is a need to increase domestic refining capacity and gas exploitation, as increasing domestic consumption may result in reduced exports over the next two decades, thereby reducing revenues.

• Any increase in the price of oil will reduce demand, but the reverse is not necessarily true.

• By 2035, the USA, Japan, OECD European countries, China and India will need to import more than 40 mbpd, which represents a 25% increase on their oil requirements of 2005.

• 25% of the world's population is deprived of electric power, which is considered as geopolitical "time bomb."

• Natural gas and coal are expected to be favored in electricity generation, while hydrogen is expected to be used in the transport sector.

• There is an urgent need for economic diversification in oil producing countries through investment in human capital.

• Producers must focus on reducing price volatility by investment in the oil sector and active participation in international policy-making processes.

• It is no longer possible to significantly increase oil supplies owing to the drop in proven reserves and the increasing cost of production. The producing countries in the Middle East must consider slowing down production in order to maintain reserves.

• Competition over reserves will dominate the global energy markets in the future. Hence, international cooperation is essential to prevent competition over resources from hindering global development.

• Arab countries will face several challenges to their renewable energy policies, such as lack of awareness, inexperience, and weak infrastructure, while the benefits of renewable energy are not yet known.

Finally, the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research would to thank all those who have contributed to this conference. Continued efforts in this vital area are required, which will hopefully translate into benefits for the UAE community and the peoples of the GCC and the Arab world.