International Competition for Energy Resources

Prof. Michael T. Klare Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies. Hampshire College, USA A new development in the competition is the direct involvement of consumer nations' governments in securing new oil supplies. This has created new strategic alliances between large consumers and producing regions, with military force being projected to defend resource-rich territories. This may lead to more conflict as well as competition among major consumers. To reduce the possibility of military confrontation, as well as to promote more efficient use of available oil resources, it will be necessary for the major consumers to form cooperative agreements for the use of resources.

Historically, the competition for global oil resources began with Britain's drive to secure oil supplies in World War I. The Cold War forced the United States to seek outside sources of oil, and ultimately led to the US–Saudi relationship, guaranteeing oil supplies to the US and security to Saudi Arabia. The US had a formal policy to protect oil flows with military power if necessary, a doctrine that continues despite the end of the Cold War, particularly in the Gulf.

While the historical US focus has been on the Gulf, it has expanded to include West Africa and the Caspian Sea region. This is intended to secure resource access to areas not under the control of national oil companies. US military presence has followed this expanded focus.

The current, complex struggle for protection of access to oil resources is fundamentally different from that of the previous era. Demand growth in China and India makes the competition for available oil resources more intense. Between 2025 and 2050, oil demand growth in India and China will be over half the growth in global demand. This will spread to all other forms of energy and will have enormous impacts on markets for exportable oil. China and India will have to rely on imports to satisfy their growing needs. These nations will depend on imports for three quarters of their consumption by 2035, by which time the US, Japan, OECD Europe, China and India will need imports of over 40 mbpd — a 25 percent increase from 2005.

There will be insufficient oil to satisfy global needs by then. This will make the competition to secure oil supplies extremely intense. The US and China are in growing competition, usually involving transfers of military equipment and development funds to cement the supplier–consumer relationship. These supplies are often costly to develop, but the desperation of international oil companies forces them to pursue ever more expensive supplies, including unconventional sources.